Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Red Signal 1450 on S&P 500

The chart below shows the movement of the S&P 500 over the last 6 months a close on this Friday below 1450 on the S&P 500 would be negative and could signal a significant correction over the next few weeks. Any correction is likely to be quick and sharp.

Dan Perkins

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

QE3 Is not a ship

The Fed is on the wrong path. Buying mortgages doesn't create jobs. With companies flush with cash they don't need to borrow.

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Bond market May Be Telling Us Something


This is the third time the yield on the 30 T-Bond has hit 2.85%. It is trading in a very narrow range and therefore I think it is possible that we could break 3% on the 30 year soon. A break above 3% could takes us to 3.25%. The stock market will come under pressure if the yield break 3%. If the yield starts to climb above 3% look for the equity markets to buuild momentum to the downside.

If S&P doesn't see any real progress on the level of debt in the lame duck secession they have already warned about additional down grades. This could be what we are seeing in the action in the bond markets. Yields over 3% would put price pressure on most of the Fed Purchases and potentially take QE3 off the table. 


Friday, September 7, 2012

Jobs a Bad Number for the people

The decline in the jobless rate, from 8.3 percent in July, came primarily because the labor force participation rate fell to 63.5 percent, its worst level in more than 30 years — since September 1981. The civilian labor force contracted by 368,000.
A more encompassing measure of unemployment, which counts those not looking for jobs, fell to 14.7 percent from 15.0 percent in July.*

* New Jobs at 96,000, Missing Expectations; Rate Hits 8.1%


In the month of August almost 4 times as many people gave up looking for a job when compared to the people who found a job. 

Dan Perkins